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ACUS11 KWNS 141927
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141926
VAZ000-MDZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-142130-
Mesoscale Discussion 0411
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018
Areas affected...portions of southeast OH...central/northern
WV...southwest PA...central/western MD...northern VA
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88...
Valid 141926Z - 142130Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 88
continues.
SUMMARY...The risk for damaging winds is expected to continue, and
become potentially widespread, through this evening.
DISCUSSION...A line of severe thunderstorms extended from
southcentral PA west to near the WV/OH border near KPKB at 1915Z and
was moving generally southeast at 30 mph. The line of storms was in
the vicinity of a composite frontal boundary that extended from
southern OH across northern VA and then southeast to near the mouth
of the Chesapeake Bay. The environment downstream from the line of
storms is characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and around 35
kts of westerly deep-layer shear. Special 18Z soundings from RNK
and IAD show the eastern edge of the EML across western VA, and RAP
guidance has been consistent in suggesting a continued eastward
expansion of these steeper mid-level lapse rates east through this
evening. This should contribute to pockets of strong surface-based
instability developing over the next few hours.
As the convectively-generated cold pool becomes more pronounced, the
line of storms should accelerate to the east/southeast with a
continued risk for damaging winds which should become more
widespread with time. The stronger storms within the line will also
pose a risk for large hail. As the convective line matures, some
risk for a QLCS tornado will exist.
More isolated severe storms have developed over the higher terrain
of western VA, where MLCAPE of around 2000 J/kg exists but vertical
shear is weak. These storms have a history of marginally severe
hail, and may also pose a risk for localized strong wind gusts as
storms merge into a small cluster and move towards central VA the
remainder of this afternoon.
..Bunting.. 05/14/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 40677830 40717742 40457700 39967652 39487602 38907623
38357619 38067587 37877609 38167701 38207745 38087771
38167832 37807864 37877910 38247963 38267986 38168006
38438060 38928126 39258186 39418195 39628194 39818173
40048108 40617910 40677830
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