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ACUS11 KWNS 141839
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141838
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-142045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0410
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the Colorado Front Range and far
southeastern Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 141838Z - 142045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to move off the Mountains and
high terrain through the afternoon posing a threat for severe wind
and hail. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is Possible.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating over the Central Colorado Mountains and
southern Laramie Range has contributed to thunderstorm development
over the last hour. Although surface dewpoints are in the upper 40s
to near 50 away from the Mountains, and scattered boundary-layer
stratocumulus over much of the area has kept temperatures in the
low-to-mid 60s, cold temperatures aloft on the eastern fringes of
the upper low is contributing to sufficient instability to support
eastward progression of the storms off the Front Range through the
afternoon.

From roughly the South Platte valley northward, effective bulk shear
is expected to remain quite low --25-30 kt-- which will preclude
anything more than transient supercell structures with these storms.
However, whereas a multicell mode will dominate over the northern
part of the area, effective shear increases to 40-50 kt over the
southern portion of the area. Upslope low-level flow, most
concentrated over the southern portion of the area, and
high-resolution guidance provides confidence that one or two
supercells should evolve along the Palmer divide and move
east-southeast over the Eastern Colorado Plains in mid-to-late
afternoon. Localized severe wind gusts and severe hail will be the
primary threat with these storms as weak low-level wind fields
should preclude any substantial tornado threat. Overall, the
expected lack of storm organization to the north, and the lack of
storm/severe coverage to the south is currently providing
uncertainty in the need for a Watch, but conditions will continue to
be monitored for indications of a more widespread severe threat
through the afternoon.

..Coniglio/Grams.. 05/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 41120561 41640528 41690465 41250420 40660372 40300347
39600311 38910330 38550391 38910501 39820521 40450547
41120561



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ACUS11 KWNS 192159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192159
PAZ000-200000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0410
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Areas affected...Southern PA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 192159Z - 200000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some increase in the threat for damaging wind and perhaps
a tornado or two is possible into this evening. The area is being
monitored for possible watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Widespread cloudiness has thus far limited
destabilization and thunderstorm coverage across much of PA.
However, deep-layer southerly flow has allowed substantial
moistening to occur, with dewpoints now into the mid 60s F across
southern PA, sufficient to support MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg per recent
objective mesoanalyses. As stronger convection currently across VA
and the eastern WV panhandle spreads northward, some increase in the
severe thunderstorm threat is expected into at least southern PA.
Strong low-level southerly flow (40 kt or greater just above the
surface) will support a threat of damaging wind with the strongest
storms, while very favorable low-level shear/helicity will support a
threat of a tornado or two.

The primary uncertainty across this area is the ability of
convection to maintain its intensity as it spreads into a region of
very limited buoyancy. This renders the need for a watch uncertain
at this time, but watch issuance is possible if it appears that
organized convection to the south will be sustained as it moves into
southern PA.

..Dean/Hart.. 04/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...

LAT...LON 39737859 40217841 40507794 40517675 40377601 40137580
39857588 39757600 39767690 39757779 39737859



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