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ACUS11 KWNS 141755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141754
MOZ000-KSZ000-141930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0409
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Areas affected...Portions of western and northern Missouri and
eastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 141754Z - 141930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and south of a quasi-stationary front between 18 and 19z. Severe wind gusts and
marginally severe hail are the main threats. Watch issuance is
likely.

DISCUSSION...Quickly-eroding convective inhibition, a weak frontal
wave/MCV over the Kansas City area, and frontal convergence over
Kansas is expected to contribute to scattered thunderstorm
development in the next hour or two. Over Missouri, effective bulk
wind shear is rather small and will gradually decrease even further
through the afternoon to values of 15-25 kt. Effective bulk shear
will be slightly higher --25-35 kt-- over eastern Kansas. Multicells
will be the dominant mode, but MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg and DCAPE
that is expected to rise to 1000-1200 J/kg will contribute to severe
wind potential in any of the stronger downdrafts, particularly with
the initial thunderstorms before outflow spreads rapidly over the
area.

Over Missouri, although severe hail is possible in any of the
stronger storms, a relative minimum in mid-level lapse rates and a
lack of organized storm rotation should keep hail sizes on the marginally-severe end. Over Kansas slightly higher effective bulk
shear and larger lapse rates could produce somewhat larger hail over
the area. High-resolution guidance suggests outflow will quickly
consolidate into a mesoscale cold pool over both areas, but weak
vertical wind shear should preclude any organized MCS development
and thus preclude any organized, larger-scale severe wind potential.
But the coverage of storms and severe wind/hail potential is
expected to be large enough to need a Severe Thunderstorm Watch over
the area by 19z.

..Coniglio/Grams.. 05/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 38179223 38079283 37819481 37479671 37449729 37769748
38269704 39319566 39729458 39959405 40479324 40549229
40139163 39449130 38799140 38179223



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ACUS11 KWNS 192036
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192035
VAZ000-NCZ000-192130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0409
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Areas affected...Portions of central and northern North Carolina
into southern Virginia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 88...91...

Valid 192035Z - 192130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 88, 91 continues.

SUMMARY...Locally enhanced tornado threat is expected to continue
for the next few hours. A strong tornado cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...Multiple discrete supercells have matured across
northern North Carolina into southern Virginia over the past few
hours. A few of the storms have exhibited strong, sustained
low-level rotation, with a relatively long lived tornado debris
signature observed across Orange County, North Carolina within the
past half hour.

These storms are currently moving into an environment characterized
by modest buoyancy (1000 J/kg MLCAPE), and very strong low-level
directional and speed shear, with RAX VAD VWPs and mesoanalysis
indicating over 450 m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH. This ambient environment may
support a more organized tornado threat over the next few hours, and
given the relatively large amount of streamwise vorticity available,
a strong tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 04/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 34997899 35857985 37027982 37547915 37187736 36497727
35487770 35117859 34997899



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