This is a multi-part message in MIME format...
------------=_1526313446-23415-8204
Content-Type: text/plain
ACUS11 KWNS 141557
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141556
PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-141700-
Mesoscale Discussion 0408
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1056 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018
Areas affected...southeast OH...southwest PA...central/northern
WV...western MD...and northwest VA
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 141556Z - 141700Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and accelerate
east/southeast with a risk for potentially widespread damaging
winds. Some risk will also exist for a tornado or two and isolated
large hail will also be possible. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will
be issued prior to 17Z.
DISCUSSION...Regional composite radar imagery shows an area of
thunderstorms in progress at 1555Z along the PA/OH border, with more
isolated development farther west into central OH. These storms are
just north of a quasi-stationary composite surface front that
extends east-west through central IN/OH and then southeast across
eastern VA. Continued diurnal heating of a moist airmass (surface
dew points mid-upper 60s) will combine with steep mid-level lapse
rates to result in moderate/strong surface-based instability this
afternoon. Moderately strong westerly mid-level flow will
contribute to deep-layer shear of 35-40 kts across the area.
Current expectations are for the cluster of storms to become
increasingly organized over the next few hours as updrafts are able
to tap increasing boundary layer instability, and possibly merge
with storms developing farther west along the front. A
forward-propagating linear convective system is expected to develop
and moving southeast with a risk for potentially widespread damaging
winds. Some risk for a QLCS tornado will also exist, and the
stronger updrafts will also be capable of isolated severe hail.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed prior to 17Z based on
this expected scenario.
..Bunting/Grams.. 05/14/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...
LAT...LON 39288049 39588100 39948145 40058142 40548139 41068056
41167996 40687794 40197694 39807676 38997679 38467733
38397813 38617908 38867962 39288049
------------=_1526313446-23415-8204
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at
cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1526313446-23415-8204--
--- SBBSecho 3.03-Linux
* Origin: CCO BBS - capitolcityonline.net:26 (1:2320/105)