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ACUS11 KWNS 141010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141009
FLZ000-141215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0509 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Areas affected...Southeast FL Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 141009Z - 141215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Brief tornadoes will remain possible across portions of
the southeast FL Peninsula during the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Recent TPBI velocity imagery has shown several
transient areas of rotation across northern Palm Beach county where
a stronger, more persistent updraft has developed. Airmass across
the region is quite moist with the 72 deg F isodrosotherm extending
from just north of PBI southwestward to MTH (in the central Keys). Consequently, the airmass is modestly unstable with recent
mesoanalysis estimating 500 to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Additionally,
surface winds back from mostly southeastward in and around MIA to
more east-northeasterly near SUA, resulting in weakly convergent
pattern and a local maximum in surface vorticity near PBI. Moisture
convergence is also maximize across the region as moist
southeasterly flow from the Bahamas slows as it encounters the
coast. All of these mesoscale factors have contributed to a locally
maximized threat for brief tornadoes. This threat will likely
continue for at least the next few hours

..Mosier/Edwards.. 05/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

LAT...LON 25348042 25508070 25898075 27078084 27348070 27378024
27018003 26228002 25468022 25348042



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ACUS11 KWNS 191940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191940
FLZ000-192115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0407
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Areas affected...Portions of central Florida

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 92...

Valid 191940Z - 192115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 92
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch
092. Isolated damaging wind gusts are still possible.

DISCUSSION...A surface low, in tandem with a mid-level shortwave
trough located across the central Appalachians, continues to move northeastward, with deep-layer ascent translating away from the
watch area. Overall convective trends have been steady over the past
few hours, where modest instability (i.e. MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg)
remains across the Florida Peninsula. In addition, bulk effective
shear values of 40 knots, resultant from the juxtaposition of a
synoptic scale low-level jet and relatively stronger mid-level flow,
is expected to remain across the area. As such, the threat for
isolated damaging wind gusts will remain over the next few hours.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 04/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON 26218281 29378180 29377980 26218088 26218281



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