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ACUS11 KWNS 140740
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140740
INZ000-MIZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-140945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0406
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 AM CDT Mon May 14 2018

Areas affected...East-central IA...Southern WI...Northern
IL...Southwest Lower MI...Far northern IN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 140740Z - 140945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Some isolated hail is possible over the region during the
next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage over the region has increased
significantly during the past hour as a strengthening low-level jet
encourages warm-air advection across the frontal zone. Steep
mid-level lapse rates, sampled well by the 00Z DVN and ILX
soundings, support moderate elevated instability and recent
mesoanalysis suggests MUCAPE across much of the area is over 1500
J/kg. Displacement from the more well-defined EML results in quickly
decreasing instability (from west to east) across Lower MI.

The lack of stronger flow aloft will preclude anything but brief
thunderstorm organization with a generally multicell mode expected
to persist. Unidirectional westerly flow aloft will likely result in
occasional forward propagation but the elevated character of the
storms and stable low levels should preclude any gusty winds.
Isolated hail is possible, particularly as a result of cell mergers
and resulting updraft intensification. Isolated and marginal nature
of the threat will preclude the need for a watch.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 05/14/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON 42669120 43138931 42758574 41308520 41848883 42019095
42669120



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ACUS11 KWNS 191918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191918
VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-192045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0406
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0218 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Areas affected...SC...NC...VA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 91...

Valid 191918Z - 192045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 91 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat is expected to increase across ww91 over the
next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Fast-moving squall line is surging northeast in excess
of 45kt into southwestern portions of ww91. This squall line evolved
over GA earlier this morning and is amply organized/forced such that
it should propagate across central NC by 2130z, then into southeast
VA around 23z. Pre-squall line supercells are gradually intensifying
ahead of this activity and tornado threat remains highest with these
discrete structures.

..Darrow.. 04/19/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...

LAT...LON 33598030 38097819 38117579 33587804 33598030



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