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ACUS11 KWNS 181919
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181919
NEZ000-KSZ000-182115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0781
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Areas affected...Central/northern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 181919Z - 182115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected into the evening and isolated storms
could become severe. Hail and strong winds are the primary threats
with the strongest storms.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave passing over the Plains per
satellite imagery is helping to provide forcing for ascent.
Additionally, ample low-level moisture (surface dewpoints upper 60s
to low 70s; mean mixing ratios of 13-15 g/kg) and strong diabatic
heating (surface temperatures in the 90s) have destabilized
lower-levels resulting in thunderstorm development. Shear and flow
aloft are weak, but the atmosphere is strongly buoyant (MLCAPE 2000+
J/kg). Storms should continue to form mostly along a southwest to
northeast oriented diffuse surface trough. Isolated storms could
become severe with hail and strong wind gusts (DCAPE 1000+ J/kg) as
the primary threats.

..Nauslar/Peters/Weiss.. 06/18/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON 37979740 38099824 38179851 38689847 39319845 39989829
39989808 39999720 39989674 40009588 39739582 39239613
38789649 38009701 37979740



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