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ACUS11 KWNS 181619
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181619
NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-181815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0779
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Areas affected...western into northern NY...VT and NH

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 181619Z - 181815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms primarily capable of 40-55
mph gusts and wind damage are possible. A localized risk yielding
pockets of 55-60 mph may accompany the most intense downdrafts.

DISCUSSION...Subjective surface analysis places a cold front over
Lake Huron and extending through Ontario into Quebec. Ahead of the
front, the boundary layer is warming through the 80s into the lower
90s degrees F late this morning into the early afternoon. Rich
low-level moisture with lower 70s surface dewpoints reside over much
of NY with upper 60s in VT/NH. WSR-88D VAD trends at Burlington, VT
and Buffalo, NY show mid-level westerly flow beginning to increase
across the Lower Great Lakes. Additional strengthening in primarily
westerly low- to mid-level flow is expected through the early
evening.

The 12Z Buffalo, NY RAOB sampled a very poor 700-500 mb lapse rate
(4.5 degrees C/km) with little improvement expected as the upstream
air mass farther west near Detroit moves eastward into the lower
Great Lakes later today. Nonetheless, strong surface heating has
steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and up to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is now
analyzed in western NY and around 500 J/kg in northern VT/NH. A
skinny CAPE profile as a product of the poor mid- to upper-level
lapse rates will tend to limit momentum transfer from those layers
to the surface in the form of intense gusts. As a result, strong
gusts are mainly expected with the more vigorous multicell cores and
localized wind damage.

..Smith/Weiss.. 06/18/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 43167872 43277745 43607633 44397579 44397402 44827267
44297118 43537111 42757453 42117697 42327845 43167872



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