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ACUS11 KWNS 112154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112153
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-120000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0709
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

Areas affected...Northeast and east-central
Missouri...central/southern Illinois...far northwest Kentucky...far
southwest Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 112153Z - 120000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms possible along a warm frontal
boundary. No WW issuance is anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION...Isolated strong to potentially severe storms have
initiated along a warm front from northeast of IRK to east of EVV.
Modest low-level shear (0-3km SRH of up to 150 m2/s2) coinciding
with 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE along the warm front suggest that the more
intense updrafts may briefly acquire low-level rotation. As such,
isolated marginal instances of severe gusty winds and large hail are
possible and a very brief tornado cannot be out ruled.

Given the very isolated and marginal extent of the severe threat, a
WW issuance is not currently anticipated.

..Squitieri/Leitman.. 06/11/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

LAT...LON 40519339 40409229 40329147 40039014 39528866 38828756
38178659 37548626 37228702 37298804 37778942 38199040
38789152 39109211 39539287 40519339



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