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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0708

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 11, 2018 21:12:06
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 112111
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112111
    VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-112345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0708
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0411 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

    Areas affected...Central and southeast KY to part of northeast
    TN...and far southwest VA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 112111Z - 112345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Locally, strong damaging wind gusts are possible through
    the late afternoon to early evening across southeast Kentucky into
    northeast Tennessee and perhaps far southwest Virginia. WW issuance
    is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery showed a short band of
    storms in central KY, extending from Mercer to Marion Counties, and
    moving to the east-southeast at 25-30 kt. Additional isolated
    storms had developed along an old outflow boundary which was
    analyzed from northeast TN through south-central KY to southern IL.
    The ongoing band of storms in central KY had the strongest forward
    motion which should persist as they track along an instability
    gradient into southeast KY, northeast TN, and perhaps affecting part
    of far southwest VA. This motion and potential severe wind threat
    could be enhanced some, given stronger winds of 35-40 kt observed on
    the LVX VWP in the 3-5 km layer. Spatiotemporal limitations will
    preclude the issuance of a severe thunderstorm watch.

    ..Peters/Hart.. 06/11/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...

    LAT...LON 37868485 37548385 37148322 36798319 36298336 36168392
    36338426 36718473 37118518 37258543 37368560 37728500
    37868485



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