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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0707

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 11, 2018 20:42:04
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    ACUS11 KWNS 112041
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 112041
    KSZ000-112245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0707
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0341 PM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

    Areas affected...Central/North-central KS

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 112041Z - 112245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms may develop across north-central and
    central KS this afternoon. Trends are being monitored for possible
    watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows an increasing
    agitated cu field along and just ahead of the approaching cold
    front. Airmass south of the front is well-mixed with temperatures in
    the upper 90s/low 100s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. This mixing has
    eroded much the convective inhibition and the expectation is for
    continued convergence along the cold front to result in eventual
    convective initiation. However, given the amount of dry mid-level
    air (sampled well by the 19Z TOP sounding), there is some question
    as to how long it will be before this initiation takes place.
    Additionally, convergence decreases with southern extent across KS,
    casting uncertainty regarding the occurrence of thunderstorms into
    central KS in the near-term. As a result, a conditional risk for
    severe hail and wind exists across north-central/central KS. Trends
    will be monitored for convective development and possible watch
    issuance.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 06/11/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

    LAT...LON 38389716 38059764 37899809 37849847 38009882 38369890
    39089838 39659799 39939767 39919668 38869682 38389716



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