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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0705

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 11, 2018 03:21:59
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 110321
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 110321
    SDZ000-NDZ000-110415-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0705
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1021 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

    Areas affected...south central North Dakota southward across central
    South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 110321Z - 110415Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Limited severe risk may continue beyond the 04Z expiration
    of watches 170 and 171. Need for a downstream WW is being
    considered.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a solid line of storms
    extending from southwest Manitoba into northern North Dakota, which
    has diminished in intensity over the past 1-2 hours. With this
    convection moving through the axis of greatest instability at this
    time, a boundary layer that continues to cool/stabilize, and with
    flow aloft largely line-parallel, prospects for appreciable
    downstream severe risk appear low.

    Farther south across South Dakota, a more unstable environment
    persists. In addition, storm mode remains more cellular -- in part
    due to a slightly more westerly flow component at mid levels. With
    greater -- though still gradually diminishing -- severe risk evident
    in this area, the need for a new severe thunderstorm watch remains
    in question but is being considered.

    ..Goss.. 06/11/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

    LAT...LON 43770068 44180102 45980036 46519955 46449885 45439861
    44449871 43739915 43680014 43770068



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