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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0644

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 05, 2018 00:14:29
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    ACUS11 KWNS 050014
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 050014
    NDZ000-MTZ000-050245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0644
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0714 PM CDT Mon Jun 04 2018

    Areas affected...Central/Eastern MT...Extreme western ND

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 050014Z - 050245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated severe hail and wind will persist
    into at least mid-evening. Watch issuance is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...At 00Z, a supercell is ongoing across Musselshell
    County MT, with weaker convection further north approaching the
    Glasgow area. Moderate instability and effective shear of 35-45 kt
    (as noted on the 00Z GGW sounding) will continue to support the
    potential for organized structures, with a short-term severe hail
    risk likely to persist with the ongoing supercell. Some
    strengthening is possible with the convection further north
    approaching northeast MT as ongoing clusters move into a somewhat
    more moist and unstable airmass, though increasing CINH with time
    will limit the temporal window for significant intensification.

    Some upscale growth is possible as cold pools consolidate this
    evening, with an accompanying risk of isolated severe wind gusts,
    though with only a weak low-level jet response expected, any such
    development should remain relatively disorganized. The severe threat
    across this region is expected to be too marginal for watch
    issuance.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 06/05/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

    LAT...LON 46130781 46330895 46860903 47740934 48980693 49030403
    48450380 47250379 46600399 46380542 46130781



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