• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0984

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 02, 2018 16:13:58
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    ACUS11 KWNS 021613
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021613
    NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-021815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0984
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1113 AM CDT Mon Jul 02 2018

    Areas affected...Central PA...Southwest NY

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 021613Z - 021815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the
    region over the next few hours. Some of these storms may be capable
    of damaging wind gusts and trends will be monitored for possible
    watch issuance for parts of the area.

    DISCUSSION...Current visible satellite imagery shows an increasingly
    agitated cu field over western portions of central PA extending
    northward to west of the Finger Lakes in NY. This area is
    immediately ahead of an area of relatively denser cloud cover which
    is suggestive of at least modest forcing approaching the region.
    Temperatures across the region are already in upper 80s and low 90s
    which, when coupled with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, is
    resulting in airmass destabilization. Latest mesoanalysis indicates
    little to no convective inhibition remains across much of the region
    and the expectation is for further destabilization across the area
    as diurnal heating continues.

    Thunderstorms are expected to develop within the next hour or so,
    gradually increasing in coverage thereafter. Mid-level flow across
    the region is weak, precluding storm organization and promoting a
    generally chaotic multicell mode. Even so, a few stronger storms
    capable of damaging wind gusts are likely.

    ..Mosier/Hart.. 07/02/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

    LAT...LON 41157897 42927802 43287740 43407652 43187585 42037595
    39137762 38667948 41157897



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 02, 2018 17:03:59
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    ------------=_1530551041-38885-5095
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    ACUS11 KWNS 021703
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021703 COR
    NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-021815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0984
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1203 PM CDT Mon Jul 02 2018

    Areas affected...Central PA...Southwest NY...Western MD...Eastern WV Panhandle...Far Northwest VA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 021703Z - 021815Z

    CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC AREAS IN AREAS AFFECTED

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the
    region over the next few hours. Some of these storms may be capable
    of damaging wind gusts and trends will be monitored for possible
    watch issuance for parts of the area.

    DISCUSSION...Current visible satellite imagery shows an increasingly
    agitated cu field over western portions of central PA extending
    northward to west of the Finger Lakes in NY. This area is
    immediately ahead of an area of relatively denser cloud cover which
    is suggestive of at least modest forcing approaching the region.
    Temperatures across the region are already in upper 80s and low 90s
    which, when coupled with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, is
    resulting in airmass destabilization. Latest mesoanalysis indicates
    little to no convective inhibition remains across much of the region
    and the expectation is for further destabilization across the area
    as diurnal heating continues.

    Thunderstorms are expected to develop within the next hour or so,
    gradually increasing in coverage thereafter. Mid-level flow across
    the region is weak, precluding storm organization and promoting a
    generally chaotic multicell mode. Even so, a few stronger storms
    capable of damaging wind gusts are likely.

    ..Mosier/Hart.. 07/02/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

    LAT...LON 41157897 42927802 43287740 43407652 43187585 42037595
    39137762 38667948 41157897



    ------------=_1530551041-38885-5095
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1530551041-38885-5095--

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    * Origin: Capitol City Online - capitolcityonline.net (1:2320/105)