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ACUS11 KWNS 021703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021703 COR
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-021815-
Mesoscale Discussion 0984
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Mon Jul 02 2018
Areas affected...Central PA...Southwest NY...Western MD...Eastern WV Panhandle...Far Northwest VA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 021703Z - 021815Z
CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC AREAS IN AREAS AFFECTED
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase across the
region over the next few hours. Some of these storms may be capable
of damaging wind gusts and trends will be monitored for possible
watch issuance for parts of the area.
DISCUSSION...Current visible satellite imagery shows an increasingly
agitated cu field over western portions of central PA extending
northward to west of the Finger Lakes in NY. This area is
immediately ahead of an area of relatively denser cloud cover which
is suggestive of at least modest forcing approaching the region.
Temperatures across the region are already in upper 80s and low 90s
which, when coupled with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, is
resulting in airmass destabilization. Latest mesoanalysis indicates
little to no convective inhibition remains across much of the region
and the expectation is for further destabilization across the area
as diurnal heating continues.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop within the next hour or so,
gradually increasing in coverage thereafter. Mid-level flow across
the region is weak, precluding storm organization and promoting a
generally chaotic multicell mode. Even so, a few stronger storms
capable of damaging wind gusts are likely.
..Mosier/Hart.. 07/02/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...
LAT...LON 41157897 42927802 43287740 43407652 43187585 42037595
39137762 38667948 41157897
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