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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0983

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 02, 2018 01:04:55
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 020104
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020104
    MIZ000-020300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0983
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0804 PM CDT Sun Jul 01 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of Michigan

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 254...

    Valid 020104Z - 020300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 254
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A line of storms continues moving eastward across Michigan
    within Watch #254. Severe threat remains although it should begin to
    diminish after sunset. A watch extension is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...A QLCS including multiple severe warned storms
    continues moving eastward within Watch #254 across portions of
    Michigan. The 00z APX sounding shows a relatively steep low-level
    lapse rate up to the LCL (~1.5 km AGL) and DCAPE of 1051 J/kg
    indicating the continued potential for damaging winds. Storms are
    moving into marginal yet declining buoyancy (MLCAPE of 500-1000
    J/kg), which should continue storm development as the QLCS moves
    east. The downburst threat probably has peaked as surface
    temperatures begin to cool and instability will also diminish after
    sunset. The QLCS will move east of Watch #254, but the severe threat
    will diminish after sunset and a watch extension will be
    unnecessary.

    ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 07/02/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 44938532 45218516 45218441 45178391 44268394 42958419
    42298442 42328521 42328588 42418625 43538582 44738541
    44938532



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