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ACUS11 KWNS 012322
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012322
TXZ000-NMZ000-020115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0981
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0622 PM CDT Sun Jul 01 2018

Areas affected...Portions of West/North Texas and far Southeast New
Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 012322Z - 020115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are forming near a surface front as convective
temperatures are being reached. Damaging winds are possible.

DISCUSSION...Storms continue to develop near a surface front and
along outflow boundaries across portions of West/North Texas as
areas reach their convective temperatures. There are very weak
flow/shear and higher heights/temperatures aloft along the western
extent of the Bermuda High. A well-mixed boundary layer, steep
low-level lapse rates (9+ C/km), high LCLs (~3 km AGL), and DCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg per RAP soundings/mesoanalysis indicate the potential
for downbursts and strong wind gusts with hail also possible. Most
updrafts will struggle to sustain themselves and organize given the
weak shear/buoyancy (effective bulk shear < 20 knots; MLCAPE of
400-800 J/kg) and dry-air at low and mid-levels. Convection should
diminish after sunset, and the severe risk should remain isolated
with a watch issuance unnecessary.

..Nauslar/Thompson.. 07/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34230357 34470281 34350221 33900175 33720114 33690057
33719894 33719844 33689791 32909775 32439866 31929964
31250058 30860104 30340167 30110199 30180253 31150249
32130282 32480344 33710375 34230357



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