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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0980

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 01, 2018 22:41:25
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 012241
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012240
    MNZ000-NDZ000-020115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0980
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0540 PM CDT Sun Jul 01 2018

    Areas affected...North Dakota and Northwest Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 012240Z - 020115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms continue over North Dakota and into northwest
    Minnesota in the vicinity of an upper-level trough. Damaging winds
    and hail are possible.

    DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave trough is moving over western
    North Dakota providing ascent aloft and helping storms develop
    across North Dakota and into northwest Minnesota. Stronger storms
    that develop and mature in the marginal buoyancy/shear environment
    (500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE; 25-35 knots of effective bulk shear) could
    take advantage of the cold temperatures aloft (freezing level ~2.5-3
    km AGL) and produce hail including possibly severe hail. Relatively unidirectional flow/straight hodographs should result in splitting
    storms and contribute to the general multicellular convective
    development across the area. The storms appear to be mostly
    surface-based, but could transition to elevated storms later this
    evening. Storm clusters that do organize into smaller bowing
    segments have the potential to produce stronger wind gusts along
    with the aforementioned hail threat. Given the overall marginal
    severe environment and anticipated isolated severe threat, a watch
    issuance is unlikely.

    ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 07/01/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

    LAT...LON 46269816 46319946 46680104 47420228 47980299 48620260
    49000116 49020054 48999909 48969763 48979681 49009622
    49009559 48659525 48029543 47359589 46489670 46269816



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