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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0979

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, July 01, 2018 22:06:26
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 012206
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 012205
    MIZ000-020030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0979
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0505 PM CDT Sun Jul 01 2018

    Areas affected...Northwest Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 012205Z - 020030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...A line of storms continues moving eastward across the
    western Great Lakes region nearing the eastern edge of Tornado Watch
    #252. Strong wind gusts remain likely and hail/brief tornado are
    possible. A watch is possible.

    DISCUSSION...A line of storms extends from the Upper Peninsula
    southwest into Illinois along/ahead of a cold front associated with
    an upper-level shortwave trough moving over Minnesota. Surface
    temperatures are in the upper 80s to 90s, and dewpoints are in the
    mid 60s to low 70s across Michigan with marginal buoyancy (MLCAPE of
    500-1500 J/kg). There is relatively weak shear although 35-40 knots
    of effective bulk shear is present across the Upper Peninsula, and
    the flow is mostly unidirectional and parallel to the cold front.
    However, with DCAPE of 1000+ J/kg and steeper low-level lapse rates
    (7-8 C/km) the potential for severe wind remains. The best chance
    for damaging winds will be across northwest lower Michigan where the
    stronger flow/shear is present. The severe threat should diminish
    after sunset although storms may continue.

    ..Nauslar/Gleason/Thompson.. 07/01/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...MQT...

    LAT...LON 46628559 46658506 46458417 45368420 44498434 43798462
    43568518 43638658 44338647 45548605 46628559



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