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ACUS11 KWNS 011922
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011921
OKZ000-TXZ000-012145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0976
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CDT Sun Jul 01 2018

Areas affected...North Texas...South-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 011921Z - 012145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat is likely to continue through
the afternoon across parts of north Texas and in the southern half
of Oklahoma. The threat should remain marginal and weather watch
issuance will probably not be needed.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across
western Oklahoma and northwest Texas with a very moist airmass in
place ahead of the front. Surface dewpoints in the 70s F are
contributing to moderate instability across north Texas and
south-central Oklahoma with MLCAPE values estimated in the 2000 to
2500 J/kg. Although deep-layer shear is generally weak across the
southern Plains, low-level lapse rates are becoming steep. The
thermodynamic environment may be enough to support marginally severe
wind gusts with the stronger multicells.

..Broyles/Hart.. 07/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 32649729 32479782 32459883 32739963 33160023 33660026
34509991 34959914 35149794 35299645 35169589 34669564
34169581 33629638 32919686 32649729



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