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ACUS11 KWNS 011637
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011637
MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-011800-

Mesoscale Discussion 0973
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1137 AM CDT Sun Jul 01 2018

Areas affected...Southern and Eastern Wisconsin...Northern
Illinois...and Southern Upper Michigan.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 011637Z - 011800Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A few storms have formed west of Green Bay. Additional
storms are expected to form in the next hour or two along and ahead
of a cold front. These storms will pose a primary threat of damaging
winds, however, a tornado or two is also possible.

DISCUSSION...Storms have started to form west of Green Bay. While
these storms will likely only pose a marginal severe threat as they
move into an increasingly stable airmass, additional storm
development is expected in the next hour or two along the cold
front. Low-level moisture advection combined with surface heating in
the relatively cloud free airmass in southern Wisconsin will lead to
additional destabilization ahead of these developing storms. MLCAPE
is already over 2500 J/kg in southern Wisconsin with this buoyancy
expected across much of eastern Wisconsin within the next few hours.
MLCAPE of 500 to 1000 J/kg is expected to advect as far north as at
least southern Upper Michigan. Effective shear of 40 to 50 knots per
the latest RAP mesoanalysis combined with the expected moderate to
strong instability will provide an environment favorable for severe
storms this afternoon. Current ARX and GRB VWP 1 km winds of 30 to
35 knots with strengthening flow expected through the day, will
support a damaging wind threat, however, a greater tornado threat
will exist in areas with backed surface flow (currently in east
central Wisconsin). Given the strong linear forcing, storms are
expected to congeal into a squall line relatively quickly. While the
linear nature may limit the overall tornado threat, embedded
supercells in addition to any discrete storms that can form ahead of
the line will likely pose a greater tornado concern.

..Bentley/Hart.. 07/01/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...

LAT...LON 46278966 45279030 43769115 43339121 42809109 42569076
42339020 42218906 42298803 42468761 43598747 44878707
45428680 45898687 46388742 46718852 46278966



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