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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0882

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 26, 2018 01:08:33
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    ACUS11 KWNS 260108
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 260108
    KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-260315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0882
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0808 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

    Areas affected...Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 260108Z - 260315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are developing along/near surface front in the Mid
    Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys. Storm development should
    continue and may build upscale into a QLCS. Severe hail/wind are
    possible.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have developed over the past few hours across
    portions of eastern Missouri. Storms have struggled to maintain
    strength, but the buoyant environment (MLCAPE 2000+ J/kg) has
    allowed other updrafts to mature along outflow boundaries and the
    surface front. Via mesoanalysis, effective bulk shear appears
    marginal (30-35 knots), and the more organized/stronger storms have developed/persisted near the CAPE/shear gradient in the vicinity of
    the surface front.

    Storms should continue to develop this evening and may build upscale
    into a QLCS. Latest guidance offers various solutions of how
    organized the convection becomes this evening/overnight. There is
    the potential for convection to form a MCS with a strong cold pool
    that would increase the risk for severe wind as it moves southeast.
    Severe hail/wind are possible especially if the convection organizes
    into a bowing MCS. Watch potential is conditional on evidence of
    substantial upscale organization.

    ..Nauslar/Cook/Edwards.. 06/26/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

    LAT...LON 39039041 38848914 38608823 38218742 37788688 37258726
    36688770 36468828 36648920 37219004 37669052 37969096
    38339133 39039041



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