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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0878

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 25, 2018 23:30:03
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    ACUS11 KWNS 252329
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252329
    MTZ000-260200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0878
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0629 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

    Areas affected...Western/Central Montana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 252329Z - 260200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are developing across portions of western Montana
    and should continue moving to the northeast across central Montana
    this evening. Severe hail/wind are possible.

    DISCUSSION...Storms are developing in western Montana as convective temperatures are breached while an upper-level trough moves into the
    area providing ascent aloft. Storms should remain surface-based into
    the evening, and there is ample forcing/ascent aloft from the
    approaching upper-level trough that should help support storm
    development farther east. Additionally, steep lapse rates (7-8.5
    C/km) throughout the vertical profile (per RAP forecast soundings),
    modest buoyancy (MLCAPE 500-1500 J/kg via mesoanalysis), and
    sufficient effective shear (40-55 knots) could yield severe
    hail/wind as the storms mature. The environment may be more
    unstable/buoyant than latest CAMs' guidance depicts as observed
    surface temperatures and dewpoints in western/central Montana are
    3-6F higher than model solutions. Scattered multicellular
    development is expected and upscale organization is likely
    downstream as the storms move to the northeast across Montana.

    ..Nauslar/Cook/Edwards.. 06/25/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

    LAT...LON 46401320 46791331 47541356 47911224 48251069 48600906
    47620851 46610813 45950800 45321145 44981274 46401320



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