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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0876

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 25, 2018 22:15:32
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    ACUS11 KWNS 252215
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252214
    IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-260015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0876
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0514 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

    Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 252214Z - 260015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are developing near a warm front across southwest
    Iowa and in southeast Nebraska along the leading edge of an
    upper-level vorticity max/surface trough. This is a moderate
    shear/low CAPE environment with strong wind gusts, hail, and brief
    tornadoes possible.

    DISCUSSION...Storms are firing along a warm front in southwest Iowa
    with modest buoyancy (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg), but moderate shear
    (effective SRH 250+ m2/s2). Storms should continue moving to the north-northeast as the warm front lifts northward. Given favorable
    hodographs and the shear vector aligned perpendicular to the warm
    front, brief tornadoes are possible with any stronger storm that
    develops. Strong wind gusts and hail are also possible.

    Farther to the west, storms are developing along a surface trough as
    an upper-level vorticity max moves into the area. Modest buoyancy
    (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) and marginal effective bulk shear (30-35
    knots) should produce a loosely-organized multicellular cluster that
    will move easterly. The main threat will be strong wind gusts as
    modest mid-level lapse rates will limit large-hail production.

    ..Nauslar/Cook/Edwards.. 06/25/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

    LAT...LON 41199764 41479697 41689588 41769442 41449368 41239320
    40829309 40409314 40319377 40189461 40059575 39989677
    39959745 41199764



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