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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0875

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 25, 2018 20:24:01
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    ACUS11 KWNS 252023
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 252023
    ILZ000-MOZ000-252200-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0875
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0323 PM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

    Areas affected...portions of central MO into southern IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 252023Z - 252200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are possible across east-central
    MO into southern IL this afternoon. Strong winds and hail will be
    possible with these storms and area is being monitored for possible
    watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Strong heating has allowed temperatures warm into the
    mid to upper 80s across the warm sector. Surface dewpoints reside in
    the low to mid 70s, resulting in moderate instability on the order
    of 1500-3000 J/kg. Towering cumulus has been noted in visible
    satellite imagery in the vicinity of a warm front oriented northwest
    to southeast from northern MO into southern IL. Forcing for ascent
    will continue to increase as the shortwave trough over the central
    Plains shifts east, and a lead impulse ejects across MO. Effective
    shear around 35-40 kt and vertically veering wind profiles will
    support supercell storms. However, modest midlevel lapse rates
    around 6.5-7 deg C/km may limit longevity of most intense updrafts.
    Regardless, hail and damaging winds will be possible as a cluster of
    storms is expected to develop over east-central MO and tracks
    east/southeast along the boundary/instability gradient. Bowing
    segments will be possible as outflow interactions could lead to some
    linear organization of the storm cluster. Area is being monitored
    for possible watch issuance.

    ..Leitman/Thompson.. 06/25/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

    LAT...LON 37609155 38269258 39109301 39539269 39619147 39219013
    38828890 38478852 37928842 37608864 37418904 37368989
    37419040 37499088 37609155



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