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ACUS11 KWNS 251630
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251629
SCZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-251730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0874
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Mon Jun 25 2018

Areas affected...the Great Smoky Mountains and western Carolina
Piedmont

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 251629Z - 251730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated gusts of 45-55 mph and locally up to around 60
mph appear increasingly likely this afternoon. Pockets of wind
damage are expected.

DISCUSSION...An MCV over central KY will continue east towards the
Cumberland Gap and southwestern VA this afternoon. A belt of 40-45
kt westerly flow at 1-2 km AGL from KHPX and KOHX on the south side
of the mid-level circulation will move into the Cumberland Gap
vicinity later this afternoon. Surface temperatures are warming
into the middle to upper 80s degrees F with additional warming into
the lower 90s expected. The net result of steep 0-2 km lapse rates
(7-8 degrees C/km) will support a more favorable environment for
strong gusts to reach the surface. The preferred multicell mode
will limit the overall risk but localized damaging gusts are
expected.

..Smith/Thompson.. 06/25/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON 36558344 36478095 36038028 35178023 34758033 34528056
34528142 34348312 34808415 35368436 36558344



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