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ACUS11 KWNS 190232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190231
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-190430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0787
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0931 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

Areas affected...portions of northeast Colorado...and into southeast
Wyoming and southwest portions of the Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 189...

Valid 190231Z - 190430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 189
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe weather risk continues -- particularly over the
northeast Colorado vicinity.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop reveals continued regeneration of
updrafts along the Colorado Front Range, primarily in the
Denver/Boulder vicinity. Where low-level winds are backed north of
the weak low-level cyclone, shear remains supportive of
rotating/supercell storms, and indeed several cells have shown at
least transient updraft rotation. A couple of stronger supercells
are ongoing as well, and remain capable of producing large hail and
locally damaging winds, and possibly a brief tornado -- including a
pair of long-lived cells now near the Weld/Morgan County line.

With that said, there is evidence of some cell mergers/possible
beginnings of some upscale/linear growth, and this evolution is
hinted at by some of the latest CAM guidance. Some propagation of
this upscale-growing convection eastward along the I-76 corridor is
expected, accompanied by local risk for damaging winds and hail in
the short term.

Meanwhile, with the airmass gradually stabilizing, and the
expected/gradual transition from cellular to banded convection,
severe risk should begin to gradually diminish over the next couple
of hours as storms become elevated above a slowly stabilizing
boundary layer.

..Goss.. 06/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 42700451 42210378 41530265 39550290 39420491 39980523
40950496 41460526 41960470 42700451



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