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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0783

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 18, 2018 21:07:03
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 182106
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182106
    COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-182300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0783
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0406 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018

    Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming and Northeast Colorado

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 182106Z - 182300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Instability is increasing across the Front Range into
    northeast Colorado and southeast Wyoming. Storms are expected to
    develop in the next couple of hours, some of which could become
    severe.

    DISCUSSION...Stability is weakening across southeast
    Wyoming/northeast Colorado as evident by a building cumulus field.
    However, per recent RAP forecast soundings, a cap around 750mb is
    still in place inhibiting further vertical development. Ongoing
    surface heating and upslope flow will continue to build thermal
    circulations and help erode the cap. Additionally, an approaching
    shortwave trough is evident in water vapor imagery, which will help
    steepen mid/upper level lapse rates and increase buoyancy in the
    region (forecast MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg per RAP). Strong effective
    bulk shear (40-50 knots) and a veering low-level wind profile could
    lead to a few discrete supercells this afternoon/evening. Large
    hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado threat are all
    possible with stronger storms.

    ..Nauslar/Peters/Weiss.. 06/18/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 42190487 42350514 42410554 42150573 41850573 41430550
    40840513 40260510 39690512 39400510 39390465 39430404
    39530344 39860298 40590307 41080367 41890455 42190487



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