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ACUS11 KWNS 011722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011721
OKZ000-TXZ000-011915-
Mesoscale Discussion 0493
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Wed May 01 2019
Areas affected...South-central and Southwest Oklahoma...Northwest
Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 011721Z - 011915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across parts of
northwest Texas into southwest and central Oklahoma this afternoon.
Large hail, wind damage and an isolated tornado threat will be
possible with the stronger thunderstorms. Weather watch issuance
will likely be needed over the next 1 to 2 hours.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a quasi-stationary front
located from west of Wichita Falls, TX northeastward to the Oklahoma
City Metro. Surface dewpoints to the southeast of the front range
from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. The airmass is characterized by
moderate instability with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. The pristine
airmass has been capped for much of the morning but this cap is
showing signs of weakening according to the RAP. Radar shows
convection percolating across southwest Oklahoma where some towering
cumulus has attempted to develop. The current thinking is that
low-level convergence will continue to become enhanced along the
boundary over the next hour, allowing for convective initiation.
Although there is still uncertainty as to how long it will take deep
convection to become rooted, it appears that the most probable
time-frame for a severe threat to develop would be between 18Z and
19Z. In addition to the moderate instability, the Oklahoma City
WSR-88D VWP shows about 50 kt of 0-6 km shear. This combined with
low to mid-level lapse rates near 8.0 C/km will be favorable for
supercells with large hail. A threat for isolated wind damage and a
brief tornado will be possible.
..Broyles/Hart.. 05/01/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 34309631 33579735 33179878 33269954 33619991 33939999
34549970 35269855 35579766 35559674 35209635 34309631
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