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ACUS11 KWNS 221949
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221948
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-222145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0491
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Areas affected...Southeast Indiana...Extreme North Central Kentucky...Ohio...Western Pennsylvania...Northern West Virginia Panhandle...Lake Erie

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 115...

Valid 221948Z - 222145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 115
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms with a severe hail and damaging
wind gust threat continues in WW 115.

DISCUSSION...Strong storms continue for the northern portions of WW
115. Severe wind and hail have been reported with these storms.
Further to the west, storms initiated and only briefly progressed
eastward. In their wake they have left an outflow boundary that is
demarcated by a line of agitated cumulus and a few thunderstorms per
visible satellite imagery.

Going forward, storms in the northern portion should continue to
progress eastward. Ample shear is present in the environment --
40-45 kts of 0-6 km shear -- per the KCLE VAD profile. Dewpoints in
the mid- to upper-60s have contributed to between 1500-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE. The environment will continue to be supportive of both
severe hail and damaging wind gusts. Further to the west and south,
more uncertainty exists as to whether new storm development will
occur. Intermittent cells have existed near the outflow boundary,
but have yet to become sustained.

Storms along the eastern periphery of the watch may require local
extensions of WW 115 from Forest County down to Indiana County in
Pennsylvania within the next hour.

..Wendt.. 05/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 41428211 41588147 41818066 41848012 41738005 41417983
40127991 39478136 39038256 38458469 38548514 39078526
39838517 40458471 40768409 40888381 41158289 41428211



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ACUS11 KWNS 010500
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010500
OKZ000-TXZ000-010700-

Mesoscale Discussion 0491
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Wed May 01 2019

Areas affected...Southwest/south-central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 010500Z - 010700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...At least a few severe thunderstorms capable of severe hail
may continue to develop east-northeastward across
southwest/south-central Oklahoma. While the overall risk may remain
somewhat marginal/isolated, will monitor for a possible Severe
Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...Weak warm advection and isentropic ascent focused to
the north of a convectively reinforced boundary is supporting
isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorm development across
southwest OK early in the overnight. There are some indications that
additional storms could develop and otherwise spread
east-northeastward across the region overnight. Mid-level lapse
rates are very steep with adequate elevated buoyancy/shear through
the cloud-bearing layer for the strongest storms to produce isolated
severe hail. Convective trends will continue to be evaluated.

..Guyer.. 05/01/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON 34489962 35179886 35439730 34579668 34029714 34219886
34489962



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