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ACUS11 KWNS 221657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221657
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-221930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0489
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Indiana...Ohio...Far Northwest Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 221657Z - 221930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat appears likely to develop this afternoon
from eastern Indiana east-northeastward across Ohio into far
northwest Pennsylvania. Wind damage and isolated large hail are
expected to be the primary threats. Weather watch issuance will need
to be considered as storms increase in coverage and intensity.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front located from
northwest Ohio southwestward into west-central Indiana. Surface
dewpoints along and just ahead of the front are in the upper 60s to
near 70 F. Surface temperatures are now in the 75 to 80 F range and
the RAP is analyzing a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE
of 1000 to 1500 J/k across eastern Indiana and western Ohio.
Thunderstorms have developed over the last hour along the front near
the strongest instability. Thunderstorms will continue to expand in
coverage as low-level convergence increases along the front and as a
shortwave trough moves from west to east across the region. In
addition to the instability, regional WSR-88D VWPs show moderate
deep-layer shear. For example, the Cleveland VWP has 0-6 km shear
near 30 kt with unidirectional winds from the west-southwest. This
wind profile should support a potential for damaging wind gusts with
multicells especially as low-level lapse rates steepen over the next
few hours. Cells that have rotation may also be capable of producing
isolated large hail.

..Broyles/Weiss.. 05/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 42068049 42048150 41878255 41238391 40248550 39818581
39258563 38958505 38788372 39488188 40958016 41657990
42068049



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ACUS11 KWNS 010241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010241
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-010415-

Mesoscale Discussion 0489
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0941 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Areas affected...Southeast OK...Far North TX...Northwest AR

Concerning...Tornado Watch 111...

Valid 010241Z - 010415Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 111 continues.

SUMMARY...Storms moving out of north Texas into southeast Oklahoma
will continue to pose a tornado threat into the late evening, in
addition to some hail/wind risk. Further north, a threat for
damaging wind and perhaps a brief tornado or two continues along the
cold front.

DISCUSSION...Rotation has recently increased with semi-discrete
cells moving out of north TX into southeast OK. Moderate instability
and strong low-level shear/helicity will support a tornado threat
with these cells as they move northeastward, with a strong tornado
or two remaining possible with any sustained supercells. Further
north, convection has consolidated into a QLCS along the cold front,
and this trend is likely to continue as the low-level jet remains
strong in advance of this line. Damaging wind will likely be the
primary threat as the QLCS moves eastward, though a brief tornado or
two will also be possible given the strong low-level shear in place.

With WW 111 scheduled to expire at 04Z, and the potential for the
QLCS to move into a larger portion of northwest AR in the next 1-2
hours, new watch issuance is possible within the next hour or so.

..Dean/Guyer.. 05/01/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34069698 34449659 35519543 36299464 36429419 36489280
34919337 34209511 33479597 33439658 33729703 34069698



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