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ACUS11 KWNS 160105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160105
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-160230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0434
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Areas affected...TX/OK Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 99...

Valid 160105Z - 160230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 99
continues.

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging winds will persist this
evening across the TX Panhandle region.

DISCUSSION...A few slow-moving severe thunderstorm clusters are
propagating across the TX South Plains and Panhandle region. Latest
MRMS data suggests hail is common with this activity from Castro to
Motley County in TX. While the mean steering currents suggest an
east-southeast movement, various outflow boundaries may ultimately
result in some of these storms deviating considerably from the mean
flow. As LLJ strengthens some this evening there may be a tendency
for additional convection to develop from the eastern TX Panhandle
into western OK. It's not entirely clear how severe this new
elevated convection will be but hail would be the primary threat.

..Darrow.. 05/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 33450239 36970405 36980169 33460012 33450239



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ACUS11 KWNS 241951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241951
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-242045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0434
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

Areas affected...western Kentucky...far southeastern
Missouri...southern Illinois...and far southwestern Indiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 241951Z - 242045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Ongoing convection may produce isolated instances of wind
damage. A WW issuance is not anticipated due to the isolated nature
of the threat.

DISCUSSION...Surface heating, weakly confluent warm-sector low-level
flow, and convergence along synoptic surface boundaries has fostered
gradual deepening of convection across southeastern Missouri and
southern Illinois. These storms are in a moderately unstable
environment, with around 1500 J/kg MUCAPE. Shear is relatively
weak, however, with 30-35 kt mid-level flow atop marginal low-level
flow resulting in only 30 knots of effective deep shear. This
suggest that storms should remain loosely organized, with the
isolated severe threat maximized near linear, outflow-dominant bands
that can evolve. The isolated nature of the threat precludes any WW
issuance at this time, though storms should propagate downstream
along the Lower Ohio Valley through sunset.

..Cook.. 04/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON 38128912 38348826 38458722 38408682 38248653 38078645
37848663 37778683 37508735 37058806 36718891 36518975
36439038 36619055 36759060 36929058 37259035 37539004
37688986 38128912



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