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ACUS11 KWNS 241932
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241931
TXZ000-242100-
Mesoscale Discussion 0433
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019
Areas affected...central...southern...and southeastern Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98...
Valid 241931Z - 242100Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98
continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 98. Areas south of
WW 98 may experience convective development later, with hail and
gusty winds possible.
DISCUSSION...The severe threat continues across WW 98. Most of the
ongoing convection continues along and north of an outflow boundary
located from roughly 50 W COT to near/northwest of NIR to just south
of CLL. This boundary separates surface-based convection from more
elevated convection atop a relatively stable low-level airmass.
Nevertheless, a linear, mostly sub-severe complex has begun to forward-propagate across northern and central portions of WW 98, and
should impact the Austin/San Antonio Metro areas around 21Z or so.
These storms will need to reach a more buoyant airmass located east
of the aforementioned outflow to have a more extensive severe threat
- though surface obs indicate that outflow has started to retreat
northward near Fayette and Gonzales Counties. It is not out of the
question for the southern flank of the ongoing elevated MCS to begin
ingesting more surface-based parcels over the next 2-3 hours.
Farther south, mid-level capping has held strong and limited deep
convective development. High-resolution models/CAMS indicate that
at least isolated convective development will develop (most likely
along a southeastward-moving composite outflow/cold front that moved
through DRT over the past hour). Should these storms materialize,
the threat for hail and damaging wind gusts may necessitate a WW
issuance.
..Cook/Thompson.. 04/24/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 31269871 31439819 31309691 31019632 30509607 29789609
28989658 28559698 27999799 27579908 27769965 28709984
29369978 30139949 30629921 31269871
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