• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0433

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, May 16, 2018 00:42:02
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    ACUS11 KWNS 160041
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 160041
    NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-160215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0433
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0741 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

    Areas affected...Northern VA...MD...DC...DE...Southern NJ

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95...98...

    Valid 160041Z - 160215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95, 98
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for hail and damaging wind continues, though a
    gradual decreasing trend is expected this evening.

    DISCUSSION...A slow-moving, solid line of thunderstorms continues
    from northern VA eastward into southern NJ, with other more isolated
    cells moving eastward toward DC. The risk for damaging winds remains
    near the outflow surging southward across northern VA/MD, though the
    tendency for convection to be increasingly displaced from the
    outflow should result in a gradually decreasing risk with time.
    Moderate instability and marginal effective shear will also support
    an isolated hail threat, both with the primary convective line and
    also with the more discrete cells further south. This threat should
    also decrease with time as convective overturning continues across
    the region and SB CINH continues to increase.

    ..Dean.. 05/16/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

    LAT...LON 38297810 39307815 39497666 39547514 39507449 39127469
    38727504 38487551 38337683 38297731 38297810



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, April 24, 2019 19:32:40
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    ACUS11 KWNS 241932
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241931
    TXZ000-242100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0433
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0231 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

    Areas affected...central...southern...and southeastern Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98...

    Valid 241931Z - 242100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 98. Areas south of
    WW 98 may experience convective development later, with hail and
    gusty winds possible.

    DISCUSSION...The severe threat continues across WW 98. Most of the
    ongoing convection continues along and north of an outflow boundary
    located from roughly 50 W COT to near/northwest of NIR to just south
    of CLL. This boundary separates surface-based convection from more
    elevated convection atop a relatively stable low-level airmass.
    Nevertheless, a linear, mostly sub-severe complex has begun to forward-propagate across northern and central portions of WW 98, and
    should impact the Austin/San Antonio Metro areas around 21Z or so.
    These storms will need to reach a more buoyant airmass located east
    of the aforementioned outflow to have a more extensive severe threat
    - though surface obs indicate that outflow has started to retreat
    northward near Fayette and Gonzales Counties. It is not out of the
    question for the southern flank of the ongoing elevated MCS to begin
    ingesting more surface-based parcels over the next 2-3 hours.

    Farther south, mid-level capping has held strong and limited deep
    convective development. High-resolution models/CAMS indicate that
    at least isolated convective development will develop (most likely
    along a southeastward-moving composite outflow/cold front that moved
    through DRT over the past hour). Should these storms materialize,
    the threat for hail and damaging wind gusts may necessitate a WW
    issuance.

    ..Cook/Thompson.. 04/24/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

    LAT...LON 31269871 31439819 31309691 31019632 30509607 29789609
    28989658 28559698 27999799 27579908 27769965 28709984
    29369978 30139949 30629921 31269871



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