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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0431

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 15, 2018 20:18:30
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    ACUS11 KWNS 152018
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 152017
    OKZ000-TXZ000-152145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0431
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0317 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of southeast Oklahoma and far northeast
    Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 152017Z - 152145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A small MCS will continue to pose a threat for severe wind
    gusts and severe hail for the next hour or so, but should weaken
    considerably thereafter. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch downstream of
    this system is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...A small MCS with a history of primarily severe wind
    gusts continues moving south and east over the area. A small
    MCV/bookend vortex has helped maintain convective intensity despite
    rather weak background vertical wind shear. Temperatures that have
    warmed into the upper 80s ahead of the MCS, with lower 60s
    dewpoints, should help maintain severe potential through the Red
    River and perhaps a row of counties into Texas. Thereafter, a much
    more stable airmass noted by a lack of boundary-layer cumulus in
    GOES-16 visible imagery from Paris and south/southeastward will
    likely contribute to the demise of the steadier and severe
    convective leading edge. A few additional thunderstorms may develop
    to the east of the MCS, as noted near McAlester in the last hour,
    which may pose an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and hail
    from there to Idabel. However, the expected reduced intensity of
    the severe MCS, and the small coverage of the additional
    thunderstorm development, should preclude the need for a Watch.

    ..Coniglio/Grams.. 05/15/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34969591 34849524 34669488 34319471 33949484 33749514
    33549566 33429634 33469678 33659709 34029737 34339724
    34829682 34969591



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, April 24, 2019 07:17:32
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 240717
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240716
    TXZ000-240845-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0431
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0216 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2019

    Areas affected...Southwest TX into North-Central/Northeast TX

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 97...

    Valid 240716Z - 240845Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 97
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging wind gusts are still possible
    across central TX and the TX Big Bend. Severe threat elsewhere
    across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 97 is low.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a weakening convective
    line extending from northeast TX southwestward through the Edwards
    Plateau. Cold pool associated with this line is discernible ahead of
    the deeper convection across southwest TX and also farther north in north-central/northeast TX. The only place where the thunderstorms
    remain co-located with this composite outflow/cold front is across
    central TX (i.e. Mills and Comanche Counties), where the surface
    analysis also reveals a subtle meso-low. Large hail and/or damaging
    wind gusts remain possible with this storm as it continues eastward
    at around 20-25 kt. Additional updraft intensification remains
    possible in this portion of the line as the meso-low aids in
    convergence and ascent. Severe threat throughout the remainder of
    the watch area appears limited, with the exception of near the TX
    Big Bend where another strong storm exists.

    ..Mosier.. 04/24/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 30830386 33409621 32309575 29740343 30830386



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