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ACUS11 KWNS 151933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151933
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-152130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0430
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Pennsylvania...far southern New York...New Jersey...northern Delaware

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95...

Valid 151933Z - 152130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind and hail are likely to progress into eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and southern New York over the next
several hours.

DISCUSSION...A line of severe storms currently stretches from
northeastern PA into south-central PA along a cold front, and
eastward near the old outflow boundary across southern NY into
western MA and CT. A very warm and moist air mass has developed
ahead of the cold front, with temperatures approaching 90 F and
dewpoints in the 68-70 F range across PA and NJ. This high theta-e
air mass combined with 7.0+ C/km midlevel lapse rates is creating a
strongly unstable environment which will support severe storms as
they continue eastward.

..Jewell.. 05/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 40267756 40947612 41707482 41947398 41957305 41647236
41127225 40717242 40577320 40427386 39897396 39247429
38957485 39147549 39297593 39627672 39827729 40267756



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ACUS11 KWNS 240450
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240450
TXZ000-240615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0430
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Areas affected...Parts of the Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 97...

Valid 240450Z - 240615Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 97
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe hail may continue another couple of hours, along
with potential for increasing damaging winds, in association with a
supercell approaching the San Angelo vicinity through 2-3 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Conglomerate outflow associated with increasingly
extensive convective development has gradually advanced southward
into the Edwards Plateau region during the past few hours. This is
providing a continuing focus for strong low-level convergence,
enhanced by modest to weak southeasterly low-level flow beneath a
possible 50 kt west-southwesterly mid-level speed maximum
propagating into/through the region.

This configuration is contributing to moderately strong easterly
storm-relative inflow of moist and moderately unstable air (CAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg) into a sustained supercell emerging from southwest
Texas. MRMS-MESH data indicates that this storm is probably still
producing severe hail. As it progresses eastward there appears
potential for interaction with the outflow boundary that may lead to
a transition increasingly supportive of a corridor of strong wind
gusts, and eastward acceleration into the San Angelo vicinity
through 07-08Z.

..Kerr.. 04/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 31550187 31720124 31650030 31040035 30900105 30850184
31080207 31550187



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