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ACUS11 KWNS 151933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151932
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-152130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0429
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

Areas affected...Portions of eastern Colorado...northeast New
Mexico...far western OK panhandle...and far northwest Texas
panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 151932Z - 152130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will move off the high terrain and pose a
threat for severe wind gusts and hail this afternoon. A Severe
Thunderstorm Watch may be needed, particularly over the southern
portion of the area.

DISCUSSION...Strong heating over the Mountains has contributed to
scattered thunderstorm development, most concentrated currently over
the southern Rockies. Strong heating also is occurring over the
Colorado and New Mexico High Plains, and has generated very steep
low-level lapse rates over the entire area. Although surface
dewpoints are in the low-to-mid 40s, mean boundary-layer mixing
ratios are sufficient for generating MLCAPE ranging from 250 J/kg
over the Colorado High Plains to over 1000 J/kg over the New Mexico
High Plains. Furthermore, an easterly fetch of higher moisture has
been flowing persistently toward the Raton Mesa area and southward,
where dewpoints should reach the low 50s by late afternoon. The
higher moisture content, combined with higher effective bulk shear
of 35-45 kt, is creating higher confidence in the need for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch over the southern portion of the area. Scattered
discrete supercells are expected to evolve initially, but because
numerous storms are expected, and cold pools should be at least
moderately strong, storm consolidation into a mixed
multicell/supercell cluster is expected by late afternoon. The
corridor of instability within the easterly fetch is sufficient and
widespread enough to favor the maintenance of the cluster/MCS
through the early evening.

..Coniglio/Grams.. 05/15/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 35630575 37730573 38360571 39220555 39710472 39790412
39760324 39580298 39010280 38560277 37490256 36280240
35060252 34510279 34320349 34430419 34520501 34780546
35370577 35630575



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ACUS11 KWNS 240306
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240306
TXZ000-240400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0429
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

Areas affected...Texas Big Bend and Edwards Plateau into north
central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95...

Valid 240306Z - 240400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95
continues.

SUMMARY...A new severe weather watch may be issued by 1030-11 PM
CDT, as at least some severe weather potential probably will persist
into the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...East and south of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, and
east of the Interstate 35 corridor to the south, weaker boundary
layer instability appears likely to prevail in association with some combination of continuing surface cooling, stronger mid-level
inhibition, and warmer air above than across much of west Texas.
This is expected to result in considerable weakening of ongoing
storms now across and southwest of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex
as it spreads eastward through midnight-1 AM.

However, in the presence of continuing moderately large CAPE in
excess of 1000 J/kg, strong to severe storm development may persist
into the overnight hours and spread across parts of the Edwards
Plateau into the Hill Country. Additional storms may develop off
the higher terrain to the west of the Rio Grande River and spread northeastward, ahead of the mid-level closed low gradually turning
eastward toward the Big Bend region.

..Kerr.. 04/24/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 31730249 32090151 32119992 32719815 33279735 32829607
31249759 30099830 29309919 28910046 28850156 28920231
29430355 29710383 31730249



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