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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0428

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 15, 2018 18:51:58
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    ACUS11 KWNS 151851
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151851
    TXZ000-152045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0428
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0151 PM CDT Tue May 15 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of western and southwestern Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 151851Z - 152045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms posing a threat for severe hail and severe
    wind gusts are expected to develop in the next few hours. Although
    storm coverage should be low, a Watch may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...A bore/outflow boundary has been moving south across
    the Texas South Plains this morning/early afternoon and has
    contributed to the development of a few thunderstorms in the last
    hour. A dryline arcs from Midland to south of Fort Stockton, where
    additional thunderstorms are developing over the high terrain.
    Although low-level wind fields are quite weak over the area,
    westerly mid-to-upper level winds of 30-50 kt is contributing to
    somewhat long, straight hodographs over the area, and resides in a
    layer with rather deep positive buoyancy, as noted in RAP
    analysis/forecast soundings. Given the deep-layer shear profile,
    moderate instability, and a substantially-mixed boundary layer
    amidst dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s, widely scattered
    thunderstorms, including supercells, are expected through the
    afternoon. Over the northern part of the area, although the
    bore/outflow has diffused the convergence along the dryline, the
    hodographs favor splitting supercells suggesting left movers could
    affect the northern part of the area. However, the coverage of
    storms is expected to remain low, making the need for a Watch
    uncertain at this time.

    ..Coniglio/Grams.. 05/15/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...

    LAT...LON 34400181 34320119 33870082 32740028 31820008 30810026
    30140083 29780136 29740180 29820249 29940295 30400289
    30980231 31670203 33000206 33480216 34010232 34400181



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wednesday, April 24, 2019 01:36:30
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    ACUS11 KWNS 240136
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240135
    TXZ000-240230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0428
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0835 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

    Areas affected...Parts of the Texas South Plains and Permian Basin
    into north central Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95...

    Valid 240135Z - 240230Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Some hail and locally strong to severe wind gusts will
    continue in stronger convection overspreading areas near and
    southwest of the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex through 9-11 PM.

    DISCUSSION...Stronger near-surface convergence and frontogenetic
    forcing supporting vigorous convective development remain roughly
    aligned with the Interstate-20 corridor, from Midland into the
    Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. Within this activity, a couple of
    small but organized mesoscale convective systems have evolved, with
    broad embedded lower/mid tropospheric rotation evident. One of
    these appears likely to overspread the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex
    through 02-03Z, while the upstream system progresses into areas near
    and southwest of Stephenville.

    While MRMS MESH data suggest that this convection continues to
    produce at least small to marginally severe hail, a transition to
    increasing strong wind gusts appears underway. Given the
    environment sampled in the 24/00z sounding from Fort Worth
    (including weak lower/mid tropospheric flow), the more widespread
    gusts may remain on the order of 35+ kt, which appears close to the
    general eastward motion of the convective systems. However,
    corridors of localized stronger gusts may be possible in association
    with the continued evolution of the mesoscale convective vortices
    through late evening.

    ..Kerr.. 04/24/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 32150280 32340156 32519975 33139811 33209669 32709652
    32259691 31609862 31300048 31240279 32150280



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