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ACUS11 KWNS 232212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232211
TXZ000-232345-
Mesoscale Discussion 0426
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019
Areas affected...Parts of the Texas South Plains into north central
Texas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95...
Valid 232211Z - 232345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95
continues.
SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will continue to pose a risk for
mainly large hail and localized strong downbursts into the 7-8 PM
CDT time frame.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have increased in number during the past
couple of hours, roughly near and just north of the Interstate-20
corridor, from near Midland into areas northwest of the Dallas-Fort
Worth metroplex. This is where low-level convergence appears to
have strengthened in the vicinity of the slowly southward advancing
surface front. Modest easterly inflow of moist air characterized by
CAPE around 1500 J/kg will maintain activity, and probably support
further intensification and upscale growth into the evening, beneath
at least broadly difluent and divergent upper flow.
Low-level wind fields are rather modest to weak in strength, but
deep-layer is strong, and sufficient to support considerable
organization of any consolidating/upscale growing convection, which
will tend to move eastward in the presence of 30 kt
west-southwesterly mean ambient flow. This may be accompanied by a
gradual increase in potential for strong surface gusts later this
evening, possibly including portions of the Dallas-Fort Worth
metroplex. Until, then, stronger storms may continue to pose a risk
for mainly severe hail and locally strong wind gusts near the
Interstate-20 corridor at least into the 7-8 PM time frame.
..Kerr.. 04/23/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 32190211 32570094 32979962 33399780 32969702 31779802
31180052 30960214 32190211
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