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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0424

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 15, 2018 16:35:28
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    ACUS11 KWNS 151632
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151631
    OKZ000-151830-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0424
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1131 AM CDT Tue May 15 2018

    Areas affected...Portions of central and southern Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 151631Z - 151830Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A threat for isolated severe wind gusts and marginally
    severe hail is increasing over the area. A Watch is not anticipated
    at this time, but trends in convective intensity will be monitored
    closely.

    DISCUSSION...An ongoing elevated cluster of thunderstorms has shown
    signs of becoming better organized in the last hour and is producing
    a mesoscale cold pool now evident from El Reno southwest into Greer
    county. Deep-layer shear continues to be rather small --only 20-30
    kt of effective bulk shear. However, as seen in recent days,
    convective clusters have developed MCVs fairly early in their
    evolution in this weak-shear, moderately unstable regime. In the
    shorter term, a reservoir of 1500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE over southern
    and southwest Oklahoma should help maintain the stronger
    leading-edge convection. As the MCV develops, new cell generation
    will be favored along the northern half of the leading convective
    line, generally from northern Grady into Pontotoc counties. While
    the convection is expected to remain elevated through about
    1700-1730z, strong heating within the residual outflow boundary from
    last night's convection, with near-surface dewpoints in the
    mid-to-upper 60s, may help transition the convection to being more
    surface based after this time. A small enhancement to the shear,
    provided by the easterly component to the near-surface winds, should
    augment the potential for convective organization over southern
    Oklahoma. While a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not anticipated at
    this time, trends in convective intensity will be monitored closely.

    ..Coniglio/Grams.. 05/15/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35289707 35009650 34499623 34059640 34049697 34159776
    34409822 34699837 35059822 35339781 35289707



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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, April 23, 2019 18:36:59
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    ACUS11 KWNS 231836
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 231836
    TXZ000-232030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0424
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0136 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2019

    Areas affected...North Central into Southwest Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 231836Z - 232030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will increase across parts of
    Central and Southwest TX this afternoon, with the risk of large hail
    and damaging wind in the strongest cells. A severe thunderstorm
    watch will likely be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a weak surface cold front
    extending from near Gainesville, TX southwestward through the
    Abilene, TX vicinity - to a surface low eastern Pecos County. Clouds
    are slowly thinning along and south of the boundary, where latest
    mesoanalysis data suggests the MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg and
    little cap. Visible satellite imagery shows a deepening cu field
    along this zone of weak low-level convergence, and CAM solutions
    agree that thunderstorm activity will commence in the next few
    hours.

    Forecast soundings show steep low and midlevel lapse rates, along
    with sufficient deep-layer vertical shear to support supercell storm
    structures capable of large (perhaps very large) hail. Weak
    low-level winds contribute to rather straight hodographs (especially
    in southwest TX), increasing the risk of a few persistent
    left-moving supercells also capable of large hail.
    Present indications are that a severe thunderstorm watch will likely
    be needed in the next 1-2 hours.

    ..Hart/Thompson.. 04/23/2019

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 31720204 32810000 33309861 32849779 32009836 30910054
    29460115 29910229 30760268 31720204



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