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ACUS11 KWNS 030250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030250
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-030445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0990
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0950 PM CDT Mon Jul 02 2018

Areas affected...Southeast Montana...Northern South Dakota...and
Southern North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 256...257...

Valid 030250Z - 030445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 256, 257
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe storms continue across Watches #256-257 and should
persist for the next 3-5 hours. Hail/wind are the primary threats,
but a brief tornado is possible.

DISCUSSION...A couple of severe warned storms continue near/east of
Billings and have produced a few severe hail reports in the past two
hours. These storms should continue as they move east into a more
buoyant environment (MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg) with shear remaining
more than sufficient for severe storms (effective bulk shear of
45-65 knots). Severe hail is the main threat and strong wind gusts
are also possible. If the storms organize upscale into a QLCS, the
wind threat would increase.

Across Watch #256, a handful of supercells with a history of
producing severe hail continue near Bismarck and around Aberdeen.
One of the supercells southwest of Aberdeen did produce a funnel
cloud, but the tornado risk remains isolated. The environment
remains favorable for severe storms (MLCAPE of 1000-3000 J/kg;
effective bulk shear of 45-65 knots), and these storms should
continue moving slowly in a easterly direction. Some of the storms
may exit eastern portions of the watch before it expires and a local
extension may be necessary. Severe hail is the main threat, but
strong wind gusts and a brief tornado are possible.

..Nauslar/Thompson.. 07/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...
RIW...

LAT...LON 46380873 46480692 46660426 46820102 46819782 46789648
45169644 44539643 44539784 44389845 44499931 45119947
45199987 45140396 44990872 46380873



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