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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0988

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, July 02, 2018 23:58:59
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 022358
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022358
    NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-030230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0988
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0658 PM CDT Mon Jul 02 2018

    Areas affected...Southeast Montana and Far Northeast Wyoming

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 022358Z - 030230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated-scattered storms should continue to develop over
    portions of southern Montana and move east. Strong wind gusts and
    hail are possible.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have formed across southern portions of Montana
    along/near a surface front and as an upper-level shortwave trough
    moves over the area. These storms are developing in weak buoyancy
    (MLCAPE of 200-400 J/kg per RAP soundings and mesoanalysis), but
    there is some stronger shear (effective bulk shear of 45-60 knots).
    There are higher MUCAPE values (500-1000 J/kg) where the storms are
    currently (west-northwest of Billings), and there is some indication
    the storms may be elevated. As these storms move east, they will
    move into a slightly more favorable storm environment (MLCAPE 500+
    J/kg). Strong wind gusts and hail are possible within the MCD given
    the steeper low-level lapse rates (8.5+ C/km) and the freezing level
    near 3 km AGL. A couple of storms could strengthen and become severe
    farther east across southeast Montana into the western Dakotas.
    However, a watch is unlikely given the overall marginal storm
    environment.

    ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 07/02/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

    LAT...LON 45420831 46200832 46460764 46790672 46930557 47040458
    47080394 45140396 44710403 44730550 44710637 44700730
    44800822 45420831



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