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ACUS11 KWNS 022224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022223
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-030030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0986
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0523 PM CDT Mon Jul 02 2018

Areas affected...Southern North Dakota and Northern South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 022223Z - 030030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are likely to form in the next couple of hours with
supercell development possible. Severe wind/hail are the main
threats.

DISCUSSION...An increasingly agitated cumulus field is developing
across portions of southern North Dakota per visible satellite
imagery. The 20z ABR sounding showed a cap around 750 mb, but
daytime heating and enhanced convergence along a surface boundary
should allow updrafts to continue developing and eventually break
the cap. Additionally, per water vapor imagery an upper-level
shortwave is approaching that will also provide ascent aloft and aid
in the maturation of cumulus clouds into thunderstorms. The building
cumulus field is developing along a CAPE gradient and
buoyancy/instability should increase as daytime heating and moisture
advection continue with some weaker height falls associated with the approaching shortwave upper-level trough.

The 20z ABR sounding had 1137 J/kg of MLCAPE and 51 knots of
effective bulk shear, and mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE of 500-2000 J/kg
and 40-60 knots of effective bulk shear. Discrete supercells could
develop given CAPE/shear environment, and some CAMs showing UH
tracks associated with multiple supercells across southern North
Dakota and northern South Dakota this evening. The storms could also
build upscale later in the evening across the eastern Dakotas.
Severe wind/hail are possible and a tornado or two cannot be ruled
out especially with stronger storms near surface boundaries that
should act to increase effective SRH/hodograph curvature. There is
some concern regarding storm coverage given the weak forcing, but it
is an environment conducive for supercell development. Therefore, a
watch issuance is possible.

..Nauslar/Thompson.. 07/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

LAT...LON 46640402 47170320 47190151 47190005 47089790 46849662
46329658 45229644 45119724 45089988 45080222 45030361
45010416 46640402



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