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ACUS11 KWNS 022210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022210
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-030045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0985
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0510 PM CDT Mon Jul 02 2018

Areas affected...Portions of northeastern CO...western/central
NE...and northwestern KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 022210Z - 030045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage should occur this
evening, with some threat for strong/damaging winds and large hail.
Watch issuance is possible this evening depending on convective
trends.

DISCUSSION...Although large-scale forcing for ascent remains
nebulous across the central Plains, a thunderstorm has recently
initiated over far northeastern CO along a surface lee
trough/dryline. As of 22Z, additional isolated thunderstorms are
developing in the warm sector just north of North Platte, NE. 18Z
sounding from LBF modified for 21Z surface observations would
suggest MLCAPE around 4000-4500 J/kg is present across parts of
western/central NE to the south of a weak boundary. Mid-level flow
will likely remain relatively modest across this region this evening
with the primary zone of enhanced westerlies displaced well to the
north. Still, a modestly strengthening southerly low-level jet may
encourage additional thunderstorm development early this evening.
Even with a veering low-level wind profile, the modest mid-level
flow will limit effective bulk shear values, with around 20-35 kt
expected per RAP forecast soundings. Large hail will be a concern
with any initial discrete development given steep mid-level lapse
rates present, with a strong/damaging wind threat potentially
becoming a concern if storms can organize and grow upscale into one
or more bowing clusters. Effective SRH may increase enough this
evening with the modestly strengthening LLJ to suggest that a
tornado or two cannot be ruled out if storms can stay discrete.
Depending on convective trends this evening, watch issuance is
possible.

..Gleason/Thompson.. 07/02/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 40730288 41590181 42180080 42159963 41789922 41219901
40669896 40199913 39739952 39600017 39600111 39760210
40080290 40730288



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