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ACUS11 KWNS 122332
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122331
IAZ000-130200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0715
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0631 PM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Areas affected...Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 122331Z - 130200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible this evening, with
large hail the primary threat.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows increasing CU across
northwest IA near a developing cold front where temperatures have
risen into the lower 80s F. While convergence will remain weak, it
may be sufficient to initiate isolated storms over the next few
hours as height falls with the shortwave trough to the north grazes
the area. A secondary/weak boundary also stretches from east-central
IA into IL, and this may be a preferred corridor for storms to track
along. Straight hodographs as well as the isolated nature of the
potential storms support hail as a primary threat. The lack of any
appreciable low-level jet/advection should limit any organized
severe threat.

..Jewell/Hart.. 06/12/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON 42349494 42799519 43029466 43219418 43419377 43129294
42779215 42309114 41719102 41339125 41259189 41549295
42009416 42349494



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