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ACUS11 KWNS 120534
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120533
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-120730-

Mesoscale Discussion 0712
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Tue Jun 12 2018

Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...Northern Oklahoma...Western
Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173...

Valid 120533Z - 120730Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat ongoing in eastern Kansas will likely
continue for several more hours. Large hail and wind damage can be
expected with the stronger thunderstorms associated with the MCS.
Additional watch issuance may be needed across southeast Kansas as
the expiration of WW 173 takes place at 1 am CDT. The threat is
expected to become marginal across northern Oklahoma where a weather
watch probably will not be needed.

DISCUSSION...A linear MCS is currently moving southeastward into a
strongly unstable airmass across eastern Kansas and western Missouri
where the RAP is showing MLCAPE values in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg
range. This will likely fuel the MCS for several more hours as it
moves southeastward into the stronger instability. Although
deep-layer shear on regional WSR-88D VWPs is only around 30 kt, 850
mb flow will be maintained or gradually strengthen across southeast
Kansas over the next few hours. This along with the instability and
shear will likely maintain a severe threat with the stronger
thunderstorms. Large hail will be most likely with lingering
supercells. Wind damage will also be possible along the leading edge
of the MCS. The severe threat is expected to become marginal as the
storms reach northern Oklahoma and southwest Missouri later tonight.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 06/12/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 38789366 38889493 38779566 38309664 37959774 37809815
37579840 36999855 36309846 35809822 35489788 36349569
36829401 37339299 38449305 38789366



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