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ACUS11 KWNS 052302
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052301
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-060130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0647
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0601 PM CDT Tue Jun 05 2018

Areas affected...south central through southeast North Dakota and
north central through northeast South Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 052301Z - 060130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may develop across portions of central North Dakota
by 01-02Z. Supercells with large hail and damaging wind will be the
initial threats, but a brief tornado may also be possible. With time
storms are expected to evolve into an MCS with damaging wind
becoming the main threat. A WW will probably be needed this evening,
most likely 01-02Z.

DISCUSSION...Early this evening a cold front extends from northeast
through southwest ND. A warm front stretches from southwest MN into
eastern ND where it intersects the cold front. Warm sector between
these boundaries has become moderately unstable with 8 C/km 700-500
mb lapse rates situated above upper 50s F low-level dewpoints
resulting in up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Warm air at the base of the
elevated mixed layer has resulted in a capping inversion, and this
region has been under the influence of shortwave ridging much of the
day. However, water vapor imagery indicates a shortwave trough near
the MT/ND border. Increasing ascent associated with this feature and
a strengthening low-level jet should result in the development of
storms along the cold front this evening with consensus among CAMS
suggesting between 01 and 02Z. RAP analysis indicates a 50 kt
mid-level jet accompanying the shortwave trough, and this will
contribute to sufficient effective bulk shear for supercells as the
initial storm mode with damaging wind and large hail the main
threats. Despite higher than optimal LCL heights, a brief tornado or
two cannot be ruled out, mainly within a small window before storms
grow upscale.

..Dial/Hart.. 06/05/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 47579979 47809849 47619685 46899614 45979607 45549687
45489783 45469916 45410084 45410191 45820219 46290212
47120107 47579979



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