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ACUS11 KWNS 051952
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051951
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-052115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0646
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Tue Jun 05 2018

Areas affected...Southern High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 051951Z - 052115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong winds and some hail may accompany thunderstorms
across parts of the southern High Plains, especially the eastern
Texas Panhandle into early evening.

DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating is contributing to a deepening
boundary layer across the southern High Plains this afternoon.
Temperatures have warmed into the upper 90s to near 100F from the TX
South Plains into the OK Panhandle. As a result, convective
temperatures have been breached and thunderstorms are now forming
from northeast NM into southeast CO. This activity is expected to
expand in areal coverage as it begins to propagate slowly southeast,
aided in part by a weak mid-level disturbance. Forecast soundings
across this region exhibit inverted-V profiles with substantial
sub-cloud drying and surface/temperature dew point spreads on the
order of 50F. CAM guidance also suggests a gradual increase in areal
coverage as this activity moves/propagates slowly southeast. If a
sufficient cold pool can evolve with this convection, storms may be
forced into the southeast TX Panhandle/northwest TX where PW values
are more supportive of stronger downdrafts. At this time severe
coverage may be too sparse to warrant a watch. However, will
continue to monitor this region.

..Darrow/Weiss.. 06/05/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON 34380128 36550231 37400181 36980059 34679991 34380128



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