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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0567

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 29, 2018 20:11:33
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 292011
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292010
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-292145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0567
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0310 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

    Areas affected...Eastern Colorado...Far southwest Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 292010Z - 292145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms with mainly hail and wind
    threats are possible this afternoon. A WW is currently not
    anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Multicell clusters and small line segments are moving
    slowly southeastward across the Colorado Front Range and Nebraska
    Panhandle, where MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg are present. While
    current bulk shear values suggest that convective organization will
    be inhibited to a degree, steep (7-8 C/km) lapse rates atop a
    relatively moist boundary layer suggest that a few 1+ inch
    hailstones may be possible with more persistent updrafts. Isolated
    damaging gusts may be possible with any linear segments that can
    manage to organize.

    Isolated severe will remain possible for the rest of the afternoon
    as continued insolation will contribute to maintaining the
    instability axis across the discussion area through the rest of the
    diurnal cycle. Given the expected isolated and marginal nature of
    the severe threat, a WW issuance is not currently expected.

    ..Squitieri/Cook/Hart.. 05/29/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 39080473 39190444 39390427 39680399 40010386 40280373
    40590361 40980342 41340302 41640234 41650183 41180154
    40770152 40440155 39770166 39360195 38890243 38630317
    38550389 38640464 38840480 39080473



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