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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0564

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, May 29, 2018 18:39:04
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

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    ACUS11 KWNS 291838
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291838
    NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-292015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0564
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0138 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

    Areas affected...Middle and eastern Tennessee...Northwest
    Georgia...far northeast Alabama

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

    Valid 291838Z - 292015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A marginal risk exists for a brief tornado or two with
    developing cells associated with Subtropical Depression Alberto. A
    WW is currently not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...The remnants of Subtropical Depression Alberto are
    currently drifting slowly northward, with the right front quadrant
    experiencing an uptick in insolation. Surface heating, combined with
    decent low-level shear indicate that a brief tornado or two may be
    possible with developing cells to the northeast of the subtropical
    low, across the discussion area. WSR-88D VAD wind profilers indicate
    0-1km SRH values around 150-200 m2/s2, coinciding with areas of
    500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE along the Tennessee/Alabama border. No
    formidable changes in low-level shear are anticipated in the short
    term, so the risk of a brief tornado is expected to persist through
    the afternoon.

    Given marginal buoyancy present across the area, the tornado threat
    is expected to be isolated at best. A WW issuance does not appear
    warranted at this time.

    ..Squitieri/Cook/Hart.. 05/29/2018

    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...
    PAH...

    LAT...LON 35828728 36178760 36758750 37038683 36968584 36678487
    36218433 35708398 35068370 34608364 33918379 33608441
    33698495 34078536 34458574 34748588 35068610 35348639
    35538679 35668713 35828728



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