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ACUS11 KWNS 291822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291822
MNZ000-IAZ000-291945-

Mesoscale Discussion 0563
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0122 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

Areas affected...MN...IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 291822Z - 291945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail may accompany strongest storms across Iowa and
Minnesota this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Strong boundary-layer heating is noted across much of
the upper MS Valley region and this has contributed to a corridor of
steep low-level lapse rates from central IA into west-central MN. As
a result, CINH has weakened such that deep convection is now
evolving along what appears to be the leading edge of a minor
short-wave trough ejecting into western MN. MRMS algorithm suggests
1"+ hail is already noted with robust convection over southwest MN
and, with additional heating/destabilization expected, additional hail-producing storms are expected. Adequate deep-layer shear exists
across this region for organized line segments and clusters.

..Darrow/Hart.. 05/29/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 41879563 43899578 46099569 46049432 43109404 41809450
41879563



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