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ACUS11 KWNS 031715
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031715
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-031915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0996
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Tue Jul 03 2018

Areas affected...Central Louisiana and Southwestern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 031715Z - 031915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Some storms along a surface boundary may become briefly
severe this afternoon. A threat for an isolated severe wind gust
will be the greatest threat. A WW is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Current radar mosaic imagery shows a cluster of
thunderstorms associated with surface low over the Mississippi
Delta. A surface boundary was analyzed from near Shreveport, LA to
south of Lake Pontchartrain. Modest low-level hodograph turning was
noted in the KLIX VAD profile and a recent storm over Hancock Parish
showed weak rotation. With the ambient vorticity from the low
pressure center and surface boundary as well as 1000-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE, the strongest storms along the boundary may exhibit weak
rotation. These storms may be capable of becoming briefly severe
with an isolated severe wind gust being the primary threat. A very
moist profile with weak lapse rates and meager deep-layer shear
should limit the overall organization of storms. A WW is not
expected.

..Wendt/Hart.. 07/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 32739430 32609251 31789065 30778934 30088920 29939017
30389224 30949396 31589452 32249475 32739430



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ACUS11 KWNS 031719
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031719 COR
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-031915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0996
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Tue Jul 03 2018

Areas affected...Central Louisiana and Southwestern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 031719Z - 031915Z

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT COUNTY

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Some storms along a surface boundary may become briefly
severe this afternoon. A threat for an isolated severe wind gust
will be the greatest threat. A WW is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Current radar mosaic imagery shows a cluster of
thunderstorms associated with surface low over the Mississippi
Delta. A surface boundary was analyzed from near Shreveport, LA to
south of Lake Pontchartrain. Modest low-level hodograph turning was
noted in the KLIX VAD profile and a recent storm over Hancock
County, MS showed weak rotation. With the ambient vorticity from the
low pressure center and surface boundary as well as 1000-2000 J/kg
of MLCAPE, the strongest storms along the boundary may exhibit weak
rotation. These storms may be capable of becoming briefly severe
with an isolated severe wind gust being the primary threat. A very
moist profile with weak lapse rates and meager deep-layer shear
should limit the overall organization of storms. A WW is not
expected.

..Wendt/Hart.. 07/03/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 32739430 32609251 31789065 30778934 30088920 29939017
30389224 30949396 31589452 32249475 32739430



------------=_1530638378-38885-5773
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Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1530638378-38885-5773--

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